Abstract
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), established in 2018 and operating since 2021, is a significant endeavour designed to merge 54 African states into a single market including over 1.3 billion individuals and a collective GDP surpassing USD 3.4 trillion. The AfCFTA seeks to generate not just an increase in employment but also enhanced job quality, defined by equitable remuneration, security, and social protection. Ongoing evaluation and scrutiny of AfCFTA’s effects on labour are crucial to guarantee fair advantages throughout the workforce. This study employs a quantitative methodology to assess the post-implementation impacts of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) from 2021 to 2025 through a trade union lens. Data were systematically collected from multiple official sources – including UNECA, the WTO, the African Development Bank, and the International Labour Organization – and then analyzed in three distinct phases: data collection, data analysis, and synthesis/reporting. A quantitative approach was used to access AfCFTA’s post-implementation progrerss. Descriptive statistics established baseline economic, trade, and labour market trends, while an Interrupted Time-Series (ITS) regression model was applied to isolate the effects of AfCFTA’s implementation on intra-African trade dynamics. Robustness checks (e.g., Breusch-Pagan, Durbin-Watson, Ljung-Box, and Lilliefors tests) confirmed the validity of the model. Key findings indicate that AfCFTA has modestly stimulated intra-African trade, evidenced by increased export diversification and improved market access in economies such as South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya. However, the benefits have been unevenly distributed, with Central African countires lagging due to infrastructural deficits and weaker institutional capacities. Moreover, the analysis reveals that while trade volumes have rebounded post-pandemic, significant structural barriers remain that constrain the full potential of the free trade area. Based on these findings, the study recommends targeted policy interventions to bridge regional disparities, including substantial investments in transport, energy, and digital infrastructure to reduce transaction costs. It further calls for the integration of enforceable labour and social protection provisions into AfCFTA protocols and advocates for the active participation of trade unions in policy formulation. Finally, innovative financing mechanisms – such as blended finance and public–private partnerships – are recommended to support the necessary infrastructural and capacity-building projects that will enhance sustainable economic growth and labour standards across the continent.